On Bayan-Ologey Aymag and its Kazakhs translated from Kazakh by Paul D. Buell To be published in the FBIS reports (Eurasian series) Reproduced with kind permission by FBIS reports and Paul D. Buell Almaty AZIYA in Kazakh No 48 Nov 93 p 4 Article by Yerlan Arynov, Deputy Director of the Republic of Kazakhstan Strategic Research Institute under the Republic President, candidate in economic science: "The Kazakh Diaspora in Mongolia" [Text] The Republic of Kazakhstan Strategic Research Institute under the Republic President carried out in 1992 a survey for the purposes of investigating the social [and] living conditions of the Kazakh population of diaspora living in Bayan-Ologey Aymag in the Mongolian Republic. Presently we offer an article by Yerlan Arynov, deputy director of the Institute, candidate in economic science, written based upon that research. The surface area of Bayan-Ologey Aymag, formed in 1940, is 45,800 square kilometers. The aymag comprises 2.9 percent of the territory of the Mongolian Republic. The aymag consists of 13 territorial administrations. The aymag center is the settlement of Bayan Ologey. One third of the population of the aymag lives in the settlement. According to 1992 figures, the population of the aymag had reached 102,800 persons. This was 4.6 percent of the total population of the republic. The growth rate for the aymag's population was 0.37 percent above the overall level of republic population growth. During recent years the popula- tion growth rate fell considerably. Whereas in 1990 annual growth reached 6,600 persons (7.2 percent), it declined to 4,700 persons in 1991 (4.6 percent). Having a great influen- ce on this was the migration of Kazakhs living in the aymag to the homeland, to Kazakhstan. In general, for every 100 persons working, there were, by contrast, 106 persons not fit for work in Mongolia in 1991. The figure reached 111 in the aymag. Whereas some 79.5 per- cent (37,400) of the inhabitants of Bayan-Ologey Aymag worked in various sectors of the people's economy, 20.5 per- cent (9,600) were unemployed. Some 2,100 of them were un- employed for specific reasons. Looking at the economy of the aymag, animal husbandry is the primary focus there. According to figures for the beginning of 1992, there were 1,158,300 livestock with 68.0 percent of them were in private hands. Almost 60 percent of the livestock were more than three-years-old. More than half of them are of the Kazakh breed of the Yedilbay variety. There are in the oblast at present 11 economic unions (in Mongolian: somon), one state enterprise, and two enterprises processing agricultural products. The state enterprise men- tioned controls a territory of 4,400 hectares and produces annually 800 tons of grain, 4,900 tons of potatoes, and 2,000 tons of fruits, berries and vegetables, etc. Some 17,300 persons work in that sector. Operating in the aymag are a united energy industry (18.0 million kilowatt hours of electrical energy and 116.0 kilocalories of [thermal] energy), a coal mine (producing 192,000 tons of coal), a food industry combine, a printing plant (producing 5.0 million printed pages), a wool-washing plant (washing 2,200 tons of wool), a rug-weaving unit (weaving 6,200 square meters of carpet), a tungsten ore refining plant, and a construction trust. Whereas 2,400 per- sons work in the industrial sector (9.6 percent), 5,200 work in other production sectors (20.8 percent). Some 9,300 persons serve in non-producing sectors. They are: 3,800 persons (40.8 percent) in the culture, education, and arts sectors; 2,600 persons (27.9 percent) in public health and physical education sectors; 2,300 persons (24.7 percent) in domestic services and residential housing enterprise organizations. Some 100 employees (1.1 percent) in the sciences are involved with scientific work. It must be mentioned that there were 2,300 persons (2.2 per- cent) in the aymag in 1991 with higher educations; 39,500 persons (38.4 percent) with general secondary educations. Among persons with an education: 28.6 percent had a primary school education; 37.7 percent incomplete middle education; 17.2 percent complete middle education; 10.6 percent a professional-technical or middle specialized education; and 5.8 percent a higher education. In connection with the gradual entry of the relations of the marketplace into the country in recent years, new profes- sionals working in cooperate and small industries have begun to appear. In 1991 there were 2,200 such professionals, that is, 5.9 percent of the total population. Let us look at the results of the social survey carried out among the Kazakhs of the Kazakh diaspora in Mongolia. A to- tal of 354 answers were received from questionnaires dis- tributed to find out about their present social and domestic circumstances, attitude towards marketplace relationships, and intentions to return to the Kazakhstan homeland. Some 76 percent of those filling out the questionnaires were men and 22.6 percent women. As for the ages of respondents, 92.6 percent were between the ages of 16 and 54. According to statistical information for 1991, 45.7 percent of the population of Bayan- Ologey was of work age. Some 5.5 percent were pensioners. A very large demographic group within the population was comprised of young people under 16 years-of-age (48.8 percent). For that reason, views on social life and livelihood levels, and intentions to return to the Kazakhstan homeland of the Kazakh people living in Mongolia were primarily taken from the age group indicated. Let us look first at the pos- sibilities for livelihood and monthly income of each family: 33.9 percent received 200-1000 tugriks [a month]; 51.1 per- cent received 1001-2000 tugriks; 10.7 percent received 2001- 3000 tugriks; 2.3 percent received more than 3000 tugriks. It turned out that more than half of respondents received 1001-2000 tugriks. Income by families is as follows: 25.4 percent, 200-1000 tugriks; 53.1 percent, 201-700 tugriks; 16.7 percent, 701-1500 tugriks. There is no information for those families receiving more than 1500 tugriks. Such levels of income cannot guarantee a good style of living for 74.0 percent of families. For that reason, they cannot meet their daily family expenses unless they sell [their] valuable [personal] goods. At the time of the survey, unfortunately, nothing was recorded about supplementary sources of income. Almost 16.7 percent of respondents had savings, even if small, and did not need to sell valuables. Only 1.7 percent of respondents indicated that they could buy any expensive goods, including automobiles, they wanted. The vast majority of those answering the questionnaire thought that the sector of services to the people of the aymag was poor. If we break this down into percentages: 50.0 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with stores selling goods produced by industry; 50.5 percent with food stores; 46.1 percent with transport; 41.2 percent with social food services centers; 40.4 percent with trade; and 40.1 percent of the people were dissatisfied with the services of residential housing communal enterprises. It is not dif- ficult to understand from this the conclusion drawn from the replies that service in establishments providing services to the people is at a very low level. On the other hand, 86.4 percent of respondents gave a favorable evaluation to children's organizations, i.e., kindergarten and creches; 88.7 percent to medical organizations; and 74.7 percent to cultural centers. However, respondents in general had a great deal of hope in the great improvement of their present living conditions in the future. While 7.3 percent of respondents giving that answer considered themselves in "average" material condi- tions, 17.0 considered themselves in "good" material condi- tions. Only a portion of this group answered "poor". Food quality, in comparison to clothing quality, appeared to have improved two-fold recently in the views of those responding. Thus, can we not understand from this information the custom of our dear Kazakhs of putting a good face on any bad situa- tion, no matter how bad it is. In research on living stan- dards carried out in terms of three variants, "poor", "average", "good", the vast majority of the people said "good". Let us look into this. Some 85.3 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction in relations with their fellow employees; 61.3 percent with their healths; 59.3 percent with their work assignments; 50.6 percent with the work they were doing; 62.4 percent with their specialties; 68.7 percent with conditions in their social lives; and 49.7 percent with housing. Those dissatisfied with their lives were around 1.7 percent. Now, what were respondents concerned about? They were dis- satisfied with the amount of their wages ("poor" at 19.2 percent, "good", 11.3 percent), their vacations ("poor", 13.3 percent, "good", 22.3 percent), and poor use of free time ("poor", 15.5 percent, "good", 22.3 percent). Summariz- ing these results, the problem is in the poor material living conditions of families and poor organization of proper vacations. Asked whether or not the work of social services organiza- tions had changed and improved fundamentally during the last 4-5 years, most answered "no". It was easily ascertained that there is a shortage of goods in high demand (90.7 per- cent), that there are transportation problems (81.6 per- cent). that there is poor quality in medical services to the public (64.7 percent), and likewise that the quality of work in the cultural establishments is poor (69.2 percent). By way of compensation, the number of trade industries and cooperatives has grown in accordance with market reform. Following that, inhabitants of the aymag gave the following answers regarding where they get the clothing and food goods needed by themselves. It was hard to determine a clear response. There was observed considerable confusion in the levels of purchase of the mentioned goods. Some 26.6 percent made their own clothing; 25.4 percent bought it in the public market; and 14.4 percent bought it in stores. Half of respondents made clear that while they got food products like meat and milk from relatives or from in- dividual enterprises that they purchased vegetables, fruits and berries, break, and fish only from stores. This must be because such varieties of food are little produced in Mongolia. All in all, many respondents felt that the level of supply of food goods at present was "average" or "bad". If we rely upon information concerning answers of heads of Kazakh families living in Mongolia to questions about their basic interests and desires to migrate and move back to the homeland, 8.5 percent said that they were preparing to move back to the native soil of their ancestors. Some 58.8 per- cent said that they would come in 1993. However, 34.5 per- cent said that they will migrate in the next two years. It was shown clearly that while 85.3 percent would migrate to Kazakhstan with their entire families, 4.0 percent would come on their own. Let us now touch on the question of to which oblast in Kazakhstan our kinsmen living in Mongolia would mostly migrate. Some 22.3 percent of heads of Kazakh families living in Mongolia would make Eastern Kazakhshtan Oblast their new home; 17.8 percent, Qaraghandy Oblast; 10.7 per- cent, Almaty Oblast; 7.0 percent, Almaty City; 9.0 percent Koshetaw Oblast; 5.6 percent, Qostanay Oblast. Only a very small part of them would migrate to Atyraw, Torghay, Qyzylorda, Aqtobe, and Aqmola oblasts. Kazakhs from the Kazakh diaspora in Mongolia are considering migration to oblasts where the representatives of the local nationality [i.e., Kazakhs] are few and they will no doubt have a very favorable influence on the growth of the Kazakh demography of those oblasts and upon the formation of a linguistic environment. For that reason we must do everyth- ing possible for them through the state. Some 30.5 percent of those making ready to return to the homeland have been considering settlement in rural areas; 48.9 percent in cities, and of these, 7.1 percent in the republic capital. Barriers to migration: 28.0 percent said they were in- fluenced by material difficulties, 23.5 percent by dif- ferences in law, and 15 percent by republic political problems. While 44.1 percent of respondents expected to purchase state apartments or houses immediately after migrating, 13.8 per- cent would live together with relatives. While 87 percent of them would rely on material aid provided by the state when they come, only 5.4 percent expressed confidence in their own resources and funding. As the results of the survey carried out among our kinsmen living in Mongolia show, the great hope of the overwhelming majority is to return to the homeland and to live there, developing their language and religion. Thus, the genera- tions of a sovereign nation will be increased. In particular, it is a source of joy that they have chosen regions where "Russian- speakers" are concentrated. However, while this is so, just like the saying "a dry spoon tears the mouth [i.e., there are good and bad aspects to things]", we should not forget that only 5.4 percent of respondents place confidence in their own finances and that the rest ex- pect aid from the state. Whereas only 16.8 percent plan to buy housing immediately, 13.8 percent will continue to live with relatives. For that reason, we must, bearing in mind the fact that Kazakhs of the diaspora in Mongolia are poorly provided for materially, make special efforts when material assistance is organized through state and social organiza- tions. We must devote attention to their learning in the Kazakh native language and to the consolidation of a linguistic environment. This is because the weight of Kazakh people in the regions of Kazakhstan is at a low level. For example, whereas, according to 1989 figures, representatives of the local nationality were 27.2 percent in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast, the local nationality was 17.2 percent in Qaraghandy Oblast, and the representatives of the Russian people 52.2 percent. This being the case, we must not forget that 22.3 and 17.2 percent respectively [of Mongolian Kazakhs wishing to migrate] have expressed an interest in settling in these oblasts. If the entire Kazakh population of Mongolia were to migrate, there is no question that this would lead to a radical change in the national demography of Kazakhstan. The reason is that the vast majority of them are large families. We must not forget that in nearly 60 percent of the families there are more than 3 children.