Helsinki-Conference on Gerontechnology

Twice as many years as our ancestors: and the concept of a life plan

Keynote address by Arthur E. Imhof


The fundamental change from an insecure to a relatively secure life time is explained by the effective and lasting taming of the century-old destructive trias plague-hunger-war. At the top left it can be observed that three centuries ago, only half of all newborns survived to adulthood. And even then, life remained unpredictable. The arrows of death as a result of plague, hunger, and war could not effectively be hindered by counter-measures such as quarantines (against "plagues"), grainaries (against harvest failures), or fortifications (against war bombardments; cf. bottom left). Only since the end of the Second World War brought counter-measures the wanted effects. The arrows of death became blunt and can effectively be stopped (bottom right). Most people can thus live a biologically almost full life span (top right).

Source: CD-ROM Historical Demography (1995), Fig. 72.